Technical Analysis on Financial Forecasting

Financial forecasting is an estimation of future financial outcomes for a company, industry, country using historical internal accounting and sales data. We may predict the future outcome of BSE_SENSEX practically by some soft computing techniques and can also optimized using PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization), EA (Evolutionary Algorithm) or DEA (Differential Evolutionary Algorithm) etc. PSO is a biologically inspired computational search & optimization method developed in 1995 by Dr. Eberhart and Dr. Kennedy based on the social behaviors of fish schooling or birds flocking. PSO is a promising method to train Artificial Neural Network (ANN). It is easy to implement then Genetic Algorithm except few parameters are adjusted. PSO is a random & pattern search technique based on populating of particle. In PSO, the particles are having some position and velocity in the search space. Two terms are used in PSO one is Local Best and another one is Global Best. To optimize problems that are like Irregular, Noisy, Change over time, Static etc. PSO uses a classic optimization method such as Gradient Decent & Quasi-Newton Methods. The observation and review of few related studies in the last few years, focusing on function of PSO, modification of PSO and operation that have implemented using PSO like function optimization, ANN Training & Fuzzy Control etc. Differential Evolution is an efficient EA technique for optimization of numerical problems, financial problems etc. PSO technique is introduced due to the swarming behavior of animals which is the collective behavior of similar size that aggregates together. Keywords— Financial Forecasting, Neural Network, Particle Swarm Optimization, Global Best, Particle Best